Barry Rubin

How Egypt’s Presidential Election Will Change the Middle East and the World

By Barry Rubin April 30, 2012

What might well be the most significant election in Middle East history is about to happen yet the situation and its implications are simply not understood abroad. On May 23-24, with a probable run-off on Jun 16-17, the most important country in the Arabic-speaking world is almost certainly going to choose a revolutionary transformation that will ensure continuous earthquakes of war, suffering, and instability for decades to come. Of the dozen candidates only three are important and the … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Egypt, Middle East Politics, Understanding the Middle East

Exclusive: An Islamist Nazi Collaborator is Transformed into a Moderate

By Barry Rubin April 28, 2012

Suppose you read in the Washington Post about a democratic politician who was a refugee from persecution by a dictatorship. Would you be surprised to learn that he was in fact a vicious antisemite, a radical Islamist, and—by the way—a wanted war criminal for his collaboration with the Nazis? In fact, all of the facts about this politician are easily available in the public record. The man in question is Maarouf al-Dawalibi, whose son, Nofal, has now declared himself leader of a Syrian … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Media Coverage of the Middle East, Syria, Understanding the Middle East

TURKISH-ISRAELI RELATIONS IN THE SHADOW OF THE ARAB SPRING

By Barry Rubin April 27, 2012

'Gaza: The Case for Middle East Peace': Erdogan, Peres, Ki-moon, Moussa

This article is a short analysis of how Turkey changed under AKP rule so that the regime no longer wished to have an alignment with Israel but, on the contrary, needed to treat Israel as an enemy. In order to understand the initial reasons behind the creation of the Turkish-Israeli alliance, one must also recognize why that alignment came to an end. The cause was not within the partnership itself nor was it due to the 2008/2009 Gaza War or the 2010 flotilla events; rather this resulted from … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Israel, Israel-Palestinian Issues, Media Coverage of the Middle East, MERIA Journal Volume 16, Number 01 (March 2012), Middle East Politics , Regional , Regional Security, Turkey

The Media Discovers What Obama’s Been Doing All Along: Al-Qaida Bad, Islamists Good

By Barry Rubin April 26, 2012

A great controversy has erupted over a National Journal article by Michael Hirsh entitled, “The Post Al Qaida Era.” I think this is an important issue there is absolutely nothing new here that couldn’t have been seen—as I’ll show in a moment—five years ago. The Obama Administration has long thought along the following lines: Al-Qaida is an evil and terrible organization. It attacked America on September 11, 2001. It is a sworn enemy of the United States and it uses terrorism. … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Media Coverage of the Middle East, U.S. Policy on the Middle East

Seated Among the Heroes and Watching the Faces of the Martyrs

By Barry Rubin April 25, 2012

As we set out down Ibn Gvirol Street to the Herzliya Gymnasia high school, all the stores were closing. The police cordoned off the street to vehicles and, as on Yom Kippur, hundreds of people strolled down the middle of the pavement. Past the city hall, where a concert was starting up, we walked and then past the small memorial of restless stones that marks the place where Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated. That night in November 1995, I’d come home from the peace rally … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Israel, Media Coverage of the Middle East, Understanding the Middle East

Egypt’s Elections: Titanic of Western Interests, Meet Iceberg of Islamist Revolutionary Zeal

By Barry Rubin April 23, 2012

Egypt will hold its presidential election May 23-24 with a possible run-off on June 16-17. It is impossible at this point to predict what’s going to happen but I can make a good guess. Eight weeks from now Egypt will be led by either a radical anti-American Islamist who wants to wipe Israel off the map or by a radical anti-American nationalist who just hates Israel passionately. Let’s review the background and then analyze the likely events to come. Since Egypt’s revolution began a … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Egypt, Middle East Politics, Radical Movements

One Day in My Family’s Polish Town

By Barry Rubin April 20, 2012

Before dawn of Monday, March 28, 1942, German SS and Einsatzgruppe B units accompanied by a Latvian police detachment boarded a convoy of vehicles. Before dawn, they surrounded the town of Dolhinov, Poland. The town awoke to the sound of stamping boots, barked commands, the wails of children, and sobs of women. The Kazovitz family hid, but David, the baby, was crying and his mother feared the noise would give the hiding place. So she ran to a Christian neighbor, handed over her fur coat and … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Israel, Media Coverage of the Middle East

Who Gets to be the Caliph?

By Barry Rubin April 19, 2012

Who gets to be the caliph? After all, if you want to have a caliphate , as revolutionary Islamists do with much popular support among Muslims, somebody has to get the job and he has to have his capital somewhere. And that’s why the caliphate issue, beyond the most abstract demagoguery, is a potential suicide machine. Once the issue is raised the battle begins. The caliph would have to be Sunni and thus the Shia would not accept any Sunni caliph. Indeed, while the caliph may be a positive … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Middle East Politics, Understanding the Middle East

Hillary Clinton Implies: Pro-Israel Sentiment Doesn’t Reflect America

By Barry Rubin April 18, 2012

Sometimes a secretary of state is asked tough questions. How they are answered shows the underlying philosophy of official and government. I genuinely don’t want to make too much out of a singleexchange between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and a Tunisian audience. Yet the problem is how the approach she took fits into consistent themes of the Obama Administration. Whatever Clinton tried to do when talking to a group of young Tunisians (video here), it’s also important to consider … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Israel, U.S. Policy on the Middle East

Obama’s “Secret” Plan on Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Issue and Why (Even the Saudis Tell You) It Will Fail

By Barry Rubin April 17, 2012

Hey, there’s no hurry! The negotiations with Iran have just been postponed a month. What’s another month after the current U.S. government has given Iran 38 of them to keep developing nuclear weapons? The problem with the Obama administration is that it wants to pursue policies acceptable to the day-dreaming cultural elite, but not to regimes that are full of cunning and deceit, like the Iranian regime, whose primary objectives do not include development, openness, humanitarian values, … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Iran, Middle East Politics, U.S. Policy on the Middle East