May 21, 2012

Hamas Openly Joins Brotherhood; Brotherhood Openly Joins Hamas’s War on Israel

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Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group which rules the Gaza Strip and has been moving toward a partnership with the Palestinian Authority’s ruling Fatah party, has openly proclaimed itself the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. This development took place during the visit to Cairo of Hamas’s Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh. It should be remembered that Hamas not only calls for Israel’s destruction but for genocide against Jews generally. It was Haniyeh’s first trip abroad … [Read more...]

Egypt: As Grim Islamists March Toward Power, The Naïve Dance in Tahrir Square

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Almost 80 percent of Egyptian Muslims in nine provinces voted for radical Islamist parties in the second round of Egypt’s election. Roughly 5 percent voted for a moderate Islamic party and about 15 percent voted for liberal parties. That says it all. In the overall vote—that is, including the Christian voters–70 percent supported  radical Islamists, 47 percent (4 million) the Muslim Brotherhood (86 of 180 available seats so far; they might win more) and 32 percent for the Salafists … [Read more...]

A Coming War Threat: Terrorists Are Developing A Safe Haven in Egypt to Attack Israel

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  First, a word on contingencies. Governments and political analysts are supposed to examine likely problems in order that they can be evaded or minimized. The time to be alarmed is not when problems become visible but when governments refuse to recognize their existence. Western regimes and analysts are generally taking a best-possible-case view on Egypt and other developing issues in the region. I’m tempted to say they are taking a fantasy view. They dismiss not just worst-case but … [Read more...]

Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists: Same Goals; Different Strategies

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The two parties with the largest number of votes in Egypt have been the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party along with the Salafist al-Nour Party. Both are Islamist parties. Yet Western observers—including the Obama Administration—claim that the Muslim Brotherhood is a “moderate Islamist” group while the Salifists are radical. There are indeed important differences between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists but they are really issues of timing and tactics rather … [Read more...]

Flash: What, Me Pessimistic? Egyptian Election Outcome is Worse Than I Expected

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Since last February I have predicted that the Muslim Brotherhood would win elections in Egypt. People have thought me very pessimistic. Now the votes are starting to come in and…it’s much worse than I thought. But my prediction that the Brotherhood and the other Islamists would gain a slight majority seems to have been fulfilled and then some. According to most reports the Brotherhood is scoring at just below 40 percent all by itself. Why worse? For two reasons: First, the votes we now … [Read more...]

What’s Next for Egypt?

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Assuming that the Muslim Brotherhood and smaller Islamist groups do very well in Egypt’s parliamentary election today, what does it tell us about the modern history and political future of that country? The main cause for the political upheaval in Egypt was the long-term failure of the Arab nationalist regime that governed there, and in much of the Arab world, for well over half a century. Rulers’ inability to keep promises about what they were going to achieve – pan-Arab union, rapid … [Read more...]

Egyptian Moderates Throw Themselves to the Wolves

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On the eve of the Egyptian election, I’m really disgusted with the collapse of the moderate forces. While the Muslim Brotherhood is disciplined, united, working hard, and on message, the moderates are running around in circles. There is not the slightest sign of unity among the three main moderate parties (Wafd, Justice, and Free Egyptians) and the dozens of smaller ones. Consider that instead of putting their energy into organizing, uniting, and getting out the vote, they are engaged in … [Read more...]

Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood Versus Army: Disastrous Elections or Bloody Civil War?

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Only days before parliamentary elections, Egypt is in a huge crisis whose outcome will determine the future of almost 80 million people and perhaps the Arabic-speaking world’s fate for decades to come. Will the army go ahead with elections that will be won by the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical Salafist groups, thus producing an Islamist regime? Or will it cancel elections, declare martial law in some form, and set off a passionate civil conflict? Or will it find some compromise … [Read more...]

Brothers in Arms: The Muslim Brotherhood Takes Over the (Sunni) Arab World

On November 28, Egyptians will vote for a parliament which will also write the country’s new constitution. The Western media at first told us that the Muslim Brotherhood was weak and unimportant as well as moderate. Now, when it’s too late, the Western media is admitting they are strong and radical. But the Obama Administration insists they are strong and moderate. The last time I read an article in the Atlantic on the Brotherhood, it claimed that the group was a joke and only had 13 … [Read more...]

The Battle for Egypt: The Army Strikes Back; A Turning Point

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This is of tremendous importance. Only hours ago I wrote about how the Egyptian military felt forced by circumstances to play a bigger, longer political role in order to stem anarchy and prevent Egypt from becoming an Islamist state. Here’s more evidence of that happening. In an editorial that reflects also the Obama Administration position, the Washington Post explained that the army having political power is bad and civilian rule is good: "The generals’ justification for their … [Read more...]