February 23, 2012

Fire Spreads Both Ways

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Before the Arab upheavals of 2011, the Middle East was dominated by a cold war, pitting US-aligned regional states against a self-designated “Muqawama (resistance) Axis” of states and movements led by Iran. Both these blocs still exist. Both have been in different ways diminished by the ferment currently under way in the Arabic-speaking world. The Iran-led Resistance Axis liked to portray itself as the representative of authentic local Muslim forces, arrayed against a corrupt and … [Read more...]

Happy New Jumblatt! A Lebanese Leader Gets Brave and What it Means

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Happy New Jumblatt! What’s a Jumblatt? Well, it’s a joke that tells us a lot about Middle East politics. A friend of mine created the “Jumblatt” as a unit of time, one complete rotation in the political maneuvers of Lebanese Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt. For example, during the previous Jumblatt, he moved from being a stalwart client of Syria to join the March 14 Coalition to push Syrian troops out of Lebanon. At the peak of the last Jumblatt, he gave a rather unforgettable interview … [Read more...]

Storm Clouds Over Eastern Mediterranean

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Early this week, the US-based Noble Energy Company began exploratory drilling for offshore gas deposits off the coast of Cyprus. They did so with the agreement of the Nicosia authorities, in an area indisputably located within Cypriot territorial waters. Despite this, there was real concern that the drilling could face interference from Turkish navy ships on maneuvers in the area. The explorations proceeded undisturbed. The Turkish ships observed procedures from a discreet distance. But … [Read more...]

What’s Really Happening in the Middle East?

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I wrote that the Egyptian military government reportedly told Israel that a major Israeli offensive into the Gaza Strip might create an out-of-control situation in Egypt. The Egyptian generals weren’t being threatening or hostile, they were saying that they could either not control a wave of violence that would result or perhaps be unable to resist demands for strong action. For this and other reasons, Israel has not retaliated. One reason for the generals’ lack of desire to confront … [Read more...]

As Hizballah Prepares for War, The Ceasefire Is Going “Very Well”

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Israel is constantly urged to put its trust in the international community, an idea that hasn’t worked out too well in the past. Now the UN special envoy for Lebanon has given another reason why Israel shouldn’t take risks and make concessions based on the hope of support from international guarantees. While he did about the best he could given his situation, Michael Williams, the British diplomat working for the UN in this job, said the UN-sponsored ceasefire that ended the … [Read more...]

Take Lebanon for Example (Hizballah Did): There’s Something About a New York Times Editorial…

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…that truly embodies the spirit of the era. And in this era the mainstream spirit is to ignore reality and construct a fantasyland. Case in point (as Rod Serling used to say on The Twilight Zone), an editorial entitled “The Long Pursuit of Justice in Lebanon.” The editorial deals with the fact that four Hizballah figures, one of them very senior, have been indicted by the international tribunal for their involvement in assassinating former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Read More … [Read more...]

Obama Administration New Achievement: Messing Up Turkey, Syria, and Libya Within 24 Hours

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It's truly amazing that literally every day the Obama Administration finds a new way to mess up the Middle East. July 14-15, 2011, is a new record since it damaged Western interests and any hope for a stable future in three countries almost simultaneously! Read more … [Read more...]

A Victory for the Iran-led Coalition

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This week, beleaguered Syrian dictator Bashar Assad gave a speech in which he referred to protesters as “vandals” and re-issued a tired promise of reforms. The speech did nothing to lessen the anger of his opponents, and the uprising against the regime is continuing apace. Yet in neighboring Lebanon in the same week, the Assad regime and its allies scored a signal achievement. After 140 days of wrangling, Syria, Hezbollah and its allies held the first meeting of the new, pro-Syrian … [Read more...]

Hassan Nasrallah Exposed

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Despite its unrivaled ability to impose its will on the country, Hezbollah’s legitimacy in the eyes of non-Shi’ite Arabs in Lebanon and beyond has significantly diminished in recent years. The issuing of indictments against four Hezbollah members for the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri will only serve to accelerate and compound this process. Once, Hezbollah presented itself and was seen as an Arab force concerned above all with making war against Israel. The … [Read more...]

Investigation Accuses Four Hizballah Officials of Killing Lebanon’s Leading Political Figure

By Barry RubinYears of waiting--though leaks have been plentiful--have just about ended with the word from the international tribunal that four Hizballah officials, including the group's deputy military commander Mustafa Badreddine were involved in killing Lebanon's former prime minister Rafiq Hariri in February 2005. Yet Hizballah is now the leading force in Lebanon's government while its partner in the killing, the Syrian dictatorship, is Lebanon's foreign patron. The indictments are setting … [Read more...]