Middle East Politics

Egypt’s Elections: Titanic of Western Interests, Meet Iceberg of Islamist Revolutionary Zeal

By Barry Rubin April 23, 2012

Egypt will hold its presidential election May 23-24 with a possible run-off on June 16-17. It is impossible at this point to predict what’s going to happen but I can make a good guess. Eight weeks from now Egypt will be led by either a radical anti-American Islamist who wants to wipe Israel off the map or by a radical anti-American nationalist who just hates Israel passionately. Let’s review the background and then analyze the likely events to come. Since Egypt’s revolution began a … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Egypt, Middle East Politics, Radical Movements

Who Gets to be the Caliph?

By Barry Rubin April 19, 2012

Who gets to be the caliph? After all, if you want to have a caliphate , as revolutionary Islamists do with much popular support among Muslims, somebody has to get the job and he has to have his capital somewhere. And that’s why the caliphate issue, beyond the most abstract demagoguery, is a potential suicide machine. Once the issue is raised the battle begins. The caliph would have to be Sunni and thus the Shia would not accept any Sunni caliph. Indeed, while the caliph may be a positive … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Middle East Politics, Understanding the Middle East

Obama’s “Secret” Plan on Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Issue and Why (Even the Saudis Tell You) It Will Fail

By Barry Rubin April 17, 2012

Hey, there’s no hurry! The negotiations with Iran have just been postponed a month. What’s another month after the current U.S. government has given Iran 38 of them to keep developing nuclear weapons? The problem with the Obama administration is that it wants to pursue policies acceptable to the day-dreaming cultural elite, but not to regimes that are full of cunning and deceit, like the Iranian regime, whose primary objectives do not include development, openness, humanitarian values, … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Iran, Middle East Politics, U.S. Policy on the Middle East

Interview on Israel: An Introduction and Current Middle East Developments

By Barry Rubin April 6, 2012

1.) What makes Israel: An Introduction different from the other introductions to Israel on the market? What makes the book unique? Actually, I don’t think there is a single book that provides a comprehensive explanation of Israel’s land, people, history, society, economy, politics, and culture. What we have had are two types of books: those on the Arab-Israeli conflict, including those by journalists who didn’t know the language or much about the country, on one hand, and … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Israel, Middle East Politics, Understanding the Middle East

Does the West Have to Be So Weak on Syria … and Everywhere Else?

By Barry Rubin April 2, 2012

They’ve been saying it in Arabic, in public, for most of President Barack Obama’s term in office. The leader of the Muslim Brotherhood said it in August 2010: he pointed to Obama’s weakness as a reason for launching a revolution. But the American mass media has ignored it all. Syrian kids analyze Obama’s role and for the 2009-2012 period they are quite accurate; since then less so but still…. Well, now we have some leaked Syrian regime internal documents that make the same … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Middle East Politics, U.S. Policy on the Middle East

Predictably, Land Day Protests Turn Violent

By Gregg Roman March 30, 2012

590px-Flickr_-_Israel_Defense_Forces_-_Palestinian_Rioters_in_El-Arrub

Tear gas, rocks, and stun grenades filled the air as Palestinian rioters and Israeli security personnel skirmished today — the Land Day protests unraveled into predictable anarchy and violence. In Jerusalem, Bethlehem, and at the Erez crossing between Gaza and Israel, hundreds of Palestinian protested, and later rioted, as they marched on Israeli border positions. In an abrupt contrast to the relative silence at the Qalandiya crossing between Ramallah and Jerusalem this morning, the attempt … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Israel-Palestinian Issues, Middle East Politics, Understanding the Middle East

Syrian Opposition Seeks to Show Alternative to Assad

By Jonathan Spyer March 27, 2012

ISTANBUL - Syria's fractious opposition groups began reconciliation talks in Istanbul on Tuesday aimed at demonstrating they can provide a coherent and effective alternative to Syrian President Bashar Assad. The opposition forces have been invited by Turkey and Qatar, which hold the rotating chair of the Arab League, to talks in Istanbul to try to form a common front while their homeland is convulsed by a year-old uprising that Assad is trying to crush. About 300 dissidents attended the … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Middle East Politics, Syria

Obama Hearts Turkish Leader Erdogan As He Oppresses His Own People and Stabs America in the Back

By Barry Rubin March 26, 2012

President Barack Obama is continuing his love affair with Turkish Islamist leader Recep Erdogan. As Erdogan continues to undermine Turkish democracy, throw hundreds of moderates into jail, destroy the nation’s institutions, help Iran, throw hysterical tantrums about how much he hates Israel, promote Islamism in the region, and is fresh from still another meeting with Hamas leaders, Obama continues to use Erdogan as his guru. When the two men met at the Seoul, South Korea, Nuclear Security … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Middle East Politics, Turkey, U.S. Policy on the Middle East

Confusion in the Ranks

By Jonathan Spyer March 17, 2012

This week, leading Gaza- Hamas activist Salah al-Bardawil told The Guardian newspaper that in the event of a war between Iran and Israel, Hamas would not back Teheran. Hamas Foreign Minister in Gaza Mahmoud Zahar later appeared to refute Bardawil’s stance, saying that Hamas would respond “with utmost power” to any “Zionist war on Iran.” These statements reflect confusion and divisions in the main Palestinian- Islamist movement. The confusion derives from the variety of options which … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Iran, Middle East Politics, Palestinians

Will the Palestinians Launch a Third “Intifadah” War on Israel?

By Barry Rubin March 11, 2012

Is there going to be a “third intifada?” I have no idea. That is a question most likely to be determined by those who set Palestinian strategy and they will surely differ among themselves. What interests me is the question of on what basis would such a choice be made. When this issue is discussed publicly it is attributed almost entirely to the idea that frustration will motivate revolt. This is certainly the point made by Palestinian Authority (PA) leaders. The argument is that unless … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Israel-Palestinian Issues, Middle East Politics