Regional Security

Hamas Chief: “Islamic Spring”; Brotherhood Chief: Caliphate Soon; Western Media: Islamists Moderate, Israel Bad

By Barry Rubin January 10, 2012

A 27-year-old American-Israeli law school student decides he’s going to go to Egypt and talk to Egyptians. He gets arrested by the authorities there as a spy, then is released in the prisoner exchange. He then brags that the mere charm of his magical persuasion convinced a hardened Muslim Brotherhood cadre not to be anti-Israel any more. So there’s nothing to worry about! That’s worth a Washington Post op-ed, but the Muslim Brotherhood’s leader calling for an Islamic state and a … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Media Coverage of the Middle East, Radical Movements, Regional Security

A Coming War Threat: Terrorists Are Developing A Safe Haven in Egypt to Attack Israel

By Barry Rubin December 18, 2011

First, a word on contingencies. Governments and political analysts are supposed to examine likely problems in order that they can be evaded or minimized. The time to be alarmed is not when problems become visible but when governments refuse to recognize their existence. Western regimes and analysts are generally taking a best-possible-case view on Egypt and other developing issues in the region. I’m tempted to say they are taking a fantasy view. They dismiss not just worst-case but … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Egypt, Israel, Regional Security

Happy New Jumblatt! A Lebanese Leader Gets Brave and What it Means

By Barry Rubin November 13, 2011

Happy New Jumblatt! What’s a Jumblatt? Well, it’s a joke that tells us a lot about Middle East politics. A friend of mine created the “Jumblatt” as a unit of time, one complete rotation in the political maneuvers of Lebanese Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt. For example, during the previous Jumblatt, he moved from being a stalwart client of Syria to join the March 14 Coalition to push Syrian troops out of Lebanon. At the peak of the last Jumblatt, he gave a rather unforgettable interview … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Lebanon, Middle East Politics, Regional Security

U.S. Political Engineering in the Middle East: Its Already Created Disaster Once Before

By Barry Rubin November 13, 2011

Few realize how U.S. policy at the start of the radical Islamist era in Middle East history parallels that prevailing during the beginning of the previous, Arab nationalist, era that began in the 1950s. Briefly, American policymakers at that time believed that Arab nationalist military officers would be moderate, pro-Western, enhance stability, and fight totalitarianism. Today, the policymakers expect that revolutionary Islamism will do the same thing. More than a half-century ago, though, … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Regional, Regional Security, U.S. Policy on the Middle East, Understanding the Middle East

Islamists in Power; What Could Go Wrong?

By Barry Rubin November 9, 2011

The New York Times has run an op-ed entitled, ‘The Overblown Islamist Threat.’ Big surprise: There’s no Islamist threat! They’re all moderates! Just like in 1979 Iran or in Turkey more recently. Do you think we might see an oped in The New York Times entitled, ‘The Islamist Threat is Very Real?’ Of course not. But the real surprise is the author’s identity. It’s former Jordanian foreign minister Marwan Muasher. Huh? Jordan’s policy on Islamism has been based precisely on the … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Middle East Politics, Regional, Regional Security, Understanding the Middle East

“Moderate Islamism?” Does It Exist?

By Barry Rubin November 3, 2011

Suddenly, a new term is foisted on us without serious debate or proof and we are supposed to rejoice at the triumphs of those now called “moderate Islamists.” The problem here is not just that I don’t believe such a thing exists but that no case can be made that it does. The tactics of some Islamists (participate in elections, advance slowly) are being confused with principles (impose Sharia law, overthrow all non-Islamist governments, defeat the infidels). This is no abstract … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Middle East Politics, Radical Movements, Regional Security

Rumors of Israel Attack on Iran Show the Media as Clueless

By Barry Rubin November 3, 2011

By Barry RubinHere's a great case study of why so much of the reporting or analysis on the Middle East is so bad. Articles in the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz have led to speculation and concern--even in high levels of the U.S. government--about whether Israel is about to attack Iran. The Guardian and Daily Mail have even predicted that the British government is going to attack Iran. For goodness sake, is anyone actually studying these issues?In fact, this story is full of holes.First, Israel has … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Iran, Regional Security

Will Their Armies Save (Some) Arab States from Islamism?

By Barry Rubin November 2, 2011

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Nowhere in the world is Mao Zedong’s dictum that political power grows out of the barrel of a gun truer than in the Middle East. The armed forces have been the basis of power in the Arabic-speaking world and in Turkey, too. That’s why the nationalist dictatorships and traditionalist monarchies, which had seen so many coups and coup attempts in the 1950s and 1960s, had to find special ways to control the armed forces. They did so by special privileges, close intelligence watches, promoting … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Radical Movements, Regional Security

The Iran Terror Plot Crisis: Big Trouble for Obama

By Barry Rubin October 12, 2011

Remember that Hillary Clinton ad about it being the early morning hours and the phone’s ringing in the White House? Well it’s arrived in real life and the phone is—or isn’t—going to be answered by Barack Obama. And the question is: What are you going to do about the dramatic announcement of an Iranian plot to attack targets in Washington DC? True, it’s a bizarre story about Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Mexican drug lords. But, after all, the United States was impelled a step … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Iran, Regional, Regional Security, U.S. Policy on the Middle East

Why Supporting Unilateral Palestinian Independence Is A Deadly Mistake

By Barry Rubin September 1, 2011

Marwan Barghouti, under a life sentence in an Israel prison, has said that if the United States vetoes a unilateral Palestinian statehood proposal at the UN this month, there will be massive riots. To underline the point, he called such a decision a "historic, deadly mistake." When he says, "deadly," he means it. Indeed, Barghouti is in prison precisely because he organized massive deadly riots after the Palestinian Authority (PA) rejected a compromise peace with Israel that would have given … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Israel-Palestinian Issues, Regional Security