May 23, 2012

HIZBALLAH AND THE ARAB REVOLUTIONS: THE CONTRADICTION MADE APPARENT?

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Since the 1990s, Hizballah has defined itself along a number of parallel lines, each of which prior to 2011 appeared to support the other. The movement was simultaneously a sectarian representative of the Lebanese Shi’a, a regional ally of Iran and Syria, a defender of the Lebanese against the supposed aggressive intentions of Israel, and a leader of a more generically defined Arab and Muslim “resistance” against Israel and the West.  As a result of the events of 2011, most important the … [Read more...]

UNDERSTANDING THE “ISLAMIST WAVE” IN TUNISIA

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On October 23, 2011, Tunisia held the first free and democratic elections in the country’s history. Tunisian voters were called upon to elect 217 members of the National Constituent Assembly (NCA), whose task was to appoint an interim government and to draft a new constitution within one year, and to prepare the country for general elections. The Islamist party Ennahda was then declared the winner of the election, obtaining 89 seats. The main problem with these elections, however, was the … [Read more...]

TURKISH-ISRAELI RELATIONS IN THE SHADOW OF THE ARAB SPRING

'Gaza: The Case for Middle East Peace': Erdogan, Peres,  Ki-moon, Moussa

This article is a short analysis of how Turkey changed under AKP rule so that the regime no longer wished to have an alignment with Israel but, on the contrary, needed to treat Israel as an enemy. In order to understand the initial reasons behind the creation of the Turkish-Israeli alliance, one must also recognize why that alignment came to an end. The cause was not within the partnership itself nor was it due to the 2008/2009 Gaza War or the 2010 flotilla events; rather this resulted from … [Read more...]

SYRIA’S 31 PERCENTERS: HOW BASHAR AL-ASAD BUILT MINORITY ALLIANCES AND COUNTERED MINORITY FOES

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As the Syrian revolution against Bashar al-Asad’s rule enters its first year, Asad appears to have a good command over Syria’s large and fractious minority community. Three of the most prominent minority groups include the Christians, Druze, and Kurds. Asad’s control of these groups was not happenstance but the result of a number of hard- and soft-power moves executed by the regime. These calculations did not simply involve direct internal dealings with said minorities, but also outreach … [Read more...]

RUSSO-TURKISH DIVERGENCE (PART I): THE SECURITY DIMENSION

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Since the early 1990s, Turkey and Russia's strategic outlooks have gradually been converging. The two countries have incrementally shed their mutual apprehensions and started a comprehensive and multifaceted cooperation. Turkish–Russian interaction in the Middle East, Caucasus, and Mediterranean reveals that there might be limits to the future expansion of their partnership.   Russo-Turkish relations encompass a multi-regional agenda from the Balkans to Central Asia, including the … [Read more...]

ISLAM IN POST-9/11 PAKISTAN: THE ROLE OF EDUCATION IN HEIGHTENING OR DIMINISHING PAKISTAN’S SECURITY DILEMMA

Pakistan's Red Mosque

  This article uses a historical approach to identify the reasons Pakistan has turned to Islam as a means to deal with its security dilemma. It then examines the role of education especially that which is oriented toward Islam, in alleviating and/or exacerbating Pakistan’s sense of insecurity.   In 1984, while reflecting on Pakistan’s political history, Lawrence Ziring, a leading scholar on South Asia, noted how the country had changed from an Islamic Republic to an … [Read more...]

BETWEEN TURKEY, RUSSIA, AND PERSIA: PERCEPTIONS OF NATIONAL IDENTITY IN AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA AT THE TURN OF THE NINETEENTH AND TWENTIETH CENTURIES

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This article traces the emergence of the modern national identities of Azerbaijanis and Armenians back to the last quarter of the nineteenth century. In doing so, it emphasizes the ways national identities were shaped by Azerbaijani and Armenian intellectual elites, reflecting their historical heritage of being parts of Turkish, Persian, and Russian empires. Accordingly, the evolution of mutual perceptions of Azerbaijanis and Armenians vis-à-vis their imperial neighbors--and vice versa--is … [Read more...]

The West should help Syrian rebels

مظاهرة_ببلدة_نصيب_في_درعا_(Naseeb,_Daraa_demonstration)

In recent days the world has witnessed the Assad regime in Syria pretending to inquire as to its citizens’ opinion in a referendum on constitutional reform, while enthusiastically slaughtering the opposition with advanced artillery. About 100 civilians were shot or blown up by the security forces in the 48-hour period during which the vote was conducted. This simultaneous referendum and bloodbath was a uniquely Assad-type production. It combined the clunky, very 20th-century and … [Read more...]

Sunni Versus Shia: The Middle East’s New Strategic Conflict

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Of course, conflicts between Sunni and Shia Muslims are not at all new, but it is indeed new as a feature on the regional level in modern times. After all, as long as there were secular-style regimes preaching an all-inclusive Arab nationalist identity, differences between religious communities are subordinated. Once there are Islamist regimes, theology becomes central again, as it was centuries ago. However, no one should misunderstand the situation. This is fundamentally a struggle for … [Read more...]

PAKISTAN AND ITS DISCONTENTS

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Pakistan is facing a serious crisis today and despite the proclivity of the nation’s elites to blame external forces, the wounds are largely self-inflicted. India is not the biggest danger Pakistan faces today. It is the extremist groups that the security establishment has nurtured over the years that have turned against the Pakistani state. The Pakistani army has yet to reconcile itself to the idea that Afghanistan should be something other than its strategic backyard, under the control of … [Read more...]